Site Updates
July 24th, 2021
We switched our Bahamas display back to mirroring imagery from the Bahamas. We again download their imagery via a cron task every 5 minutes. However, we will also keep another version of the display that loads imagery directly from their website. (in case the process we use to download imagery fails again) That other version will not have as long of a loop since we don't want to use too much of their bandwidth.
We are currently working on updating our model data page since we haven't reviewed the links on it since 2018. (our model page with links to other sites) We will likely continue to update the page into August.
We are currently working on updating our model data page since we haven't reviewed the links on it since 2018. (our model page with links to other sites) We will likely continue to update the page into August.
July 3rd, 2021
On July 1st the Bahamas radar display on our site stopped being able to load imagery. We were previously downloading their imagery to our site and then displaying it in our own display. That gave people more control over the imagery, like pausing the loop, setting a looping speed and choosing how many images to view. It seems like the particular URL where they are loading data from isn't working at the moment. However, the radar data is still available. We just had to change the URL from the site that isn't working to the site that is. Our site's server is old and we can't connect to the new secure site to download imagery. We can only display the imagery directly from their site. Our display now works doing that.
We also updated our NOAA short range radar display. In addition to the short range radar sites, there is also regional imagery in NOAA's "lite" folder and we have now added that regional imagery to our display. These regional images seem to have long range imagery. The NOAA "lite" imagery was previously not updating in a timely manner. Sometime after 0Z each day it would not update for an hour or two. It seems to no longer be doing that. It also updates faster than it did previously. Imagery might still not be as up to date than their interactive display, so you might want to avoid it during severe weather.
We also updated our NOAA short range radar display. In addition to the short range radar sites, there is also regional imagery in NOAA's "lite" folder and we have now added that regional imagery to our display. These regional images seem to have long range imagery. The NOAA "lite" imagery was previously not updating in a timely manner. Sometime after 0Z each day it would not update for an hour or two. It seems to no longer be doing that. It also updates faster than it did previously. Imagery might still not be as up to date than their interactive display, so you might want to avoid it during severe weather.
June 26th, 2021
We updated the alpha version of our dropsonde diagram in the recon system with the ability to save your preferences. The option must be enabled at the bottom of the list of options.
June 22nd, 2021
We emailed the National Hurricane Center for additional information about the new NNIC and NNIB models. We have included the response we got back about them below. We will add the additional information to our site's model system later today. They also updated the "nhc_techlist.dat" file on their server with additional information on other models. We need to review the changes they made and we will update the system with the new information over the coming days.
"Here is some additional information on the NNIC/NNIB models:
NNIC is the Neural Network Intensity Consensus model
NNIB is the Neural Network Intensity Baseline model
The inputs to NNIC include intensity forecasts from 4 deterministic intensity models (HWFI, AVNI, DSHP, LGEM) and 4 other predictors.
The model input includes 5 predictors as follows:
(1) the mean intensity from the 4 models,
(2)-(5) The deviation of each model from the mean.
The four other inputs include the following:
(6) The previous 12 hr intensity change (t=0 minus t=-12h max wind)
(7) The latitude along the OFCI track
(8) The SST along the OFCI track,
(9) The 850-200 hPa shear along the OFCI track
Predictors (6)-(9) are obtained as part of the SHIPS model diagnostics.
The NNIB model is just the simple mean of the same four models used as input to NNIC. It is used as a baseline to see if the neural network can improve on the simple mean.
The NNIC forecast is from a fully connected neural network with 1 input layer (9 nodes), 1 hidden layer (9 nodes) and 1 output layer (1 output per forecast time). The network was trained on data from 2013-2020, with a separate network for each time from 12 to 168 hr. The Atlantic and combined eastern and central Pacific were trained separately. At least 2 of the 4 input models must be available for NNIC to make a forecast. Because HWFI only provides a forecast to 120 hr, the longer range forecasts are less reliable.
NNIC is experimental and is undergoing its first end to end test in 2021 where the output is being put in the public A-decks. Caution should be exercised downloading this model."
We had previously added information based on the three separate PDF files here (PDF page 17), here (PDF page 9) and here (PDF page 14).
NNIC is the Neural Network Intensity Consensus model
NNIB is the Neural Network Intensity Baseline model
The inputs to NNIC include intensity forecasts from 4 deterministic intensity models (HWFI, AVNI, DSHP, LGEM) and 4 other predictors.
The model input includes 5 predictors as follows:
(1) the mean intensity from the 4 models,
(2)-(5) The deviation of each model from the mean.
The four other inputs include the following:
(6) The previous 12 hr intensity change (t=0 minus t=-12h max wind)
(7) The latitude along the OFCI track
(8) The SST along the OFCI track,
(9) The 850-200 hPa shear along the OFCI track
Predictors (6)-(9) are obtained as part of the SHIPS model diagnostics.
The NNIB model is just the simple mean of the same four models used as input to NNIC. It is used as a baseline to see if the neural network can improve on the simple mean.
The NNIC forecast is from a fully connected neural network with 1 input layer (9 nodes), 1 hidden layer (9 nodes) and 1 output layer (1 output per forecast time). The network was trained on data from 2013-2020, with a separate network for each time from 12 to 168 hr. The Atlantic and combined eastern and central Pacific were trained separately. At least 2 of the 4 input models must be available for NNIC to make a forecast. Because HWFI only provides a forecast to 120 hr, the longer range forecasts are less reliable.
NNIC is experimental and is undergoing its first end to end test in 2021 where the output is being put in the public A-decks. Caution should be exercised downloading this model."
June 15th, 2021
Our experimental model viewer was updated today for 2020. Atlantic HURDAT2 data from 1851 to 2020 contains updates through June 10th, 2021 to include 2020 best track data. Northeast and North Central Pacific HURDAT2 data from 1949 to 2020 contains updates through April 30th, 2021 to include 2020 best track data. All of the model data available from those three basins through the end of 2020 was downloaded on June 14th, 2021 and reflects any updates up to that point that may have been made to any of the files. The best track, model and fix data in the rest of the model system has not been regenerated.
June 1st, 2021
We continue to work on the alpha version of our dropsonde diagram. We will likely be working on the diagram for the next month or two still. The most recent addition was an optional column of available geopotential heights. The next item to add is likely to be a title, which will include a lot of various information about the sonde. We might also then add a table that shows all the available standard levels, as well as surface data, and a table that shows the most significant wind data from the surface to a pressure level you select. We might also eventually add the ability to include a map.
May 11th, 2021
A new alpha version of our dropsonde diagram is now available. Popup windows for all data points now work.
May 5th, 2021
More updates were made to the alpha version of our dropsonde diagram in the recon system. Popup windows for data points now work for the temperature part of the diagram. Eventually, this will be added for wind data points in the wind barb diagram, wind speed diagram and hodograph.
April 2nd, 2021
Our radar database map has been updated with the option to toggle the range of publicly available imagery. Over time we will add more options to the map.
We still need to make some additional improvements to the dropsonde diagram in the recon system, including the text that appears when you move your mouse over the diagram.
We still need to make some additional improvements to the dropsonde diagram in the recon system, including the text that appears when you move your mouse over the diagram.
March 7th, 2021
Further updates were made to the alpha version of our dropsonde diagram in the recon system. It now works in Internet Explorer 10 and 11. Additional updates were made improving the spacing of labels when the width of the diagram is small.
March 1st, 2021
We have released a new alpha version of our dropsonde diagram in the recon system. It now includes an early version of our hodograph.
February 16th, 2021
We have released an alpha version of our new dropsonde diagram. It is an early version of the diagram. It is now available in the recon system. We are still developing how text appears for data points. In the end, there will likely be an option to either view the hovering text somewhat like it appears now or to view data for a single temperature point in a popup window like how our model system charts work. We will continue to develop the diagram further over the next month or so.
February 2nd, 2021
Charting in the model system, as well as AXBT diagrams in the recon system, have received their final update for now. Work will now begin on the dropsonde diagram for the recon system. I am likely going to use skewt-js for the dropsonde diagram. A default example of it can be found here.
January 26th, 2021
The AXBT diagrams in the recon system have been updated.
January 17th, 2021
The new JavaScript charts have been updated to correct the previous issues mentioned. I also added the ability to save the chart as an image. I have not yet updated the new charting for AXBT diagrams. I will do that next and then will work on redesigning the dropsonde diagram to use JavaScript, rather than Flash which no longer works.
January 13th, 2021
Charts have been updated from Adobe Flash to JavaScript for wind, pressure and model error data in the model system. The charts were operating slow due to a feature that needs to be redesigned. The feature that allowed people to view model identifiers along a model line on the chart was using too much memory using the method that was being used. I removed that option for now. There are also two other minor issues. The grid alignment in the legend where model identifiers are needs to be corrected when model line identifiers are disabled in the chart based on options selected in the options panel. I also need to not have the legend expand fully for the model identifiers. They will be in a box in which you can scroll. I will replace AXBT water depth diagrams in the recon system in the next update. Then I will either work on the feature to show model identifiers or start work on a replacement for dropsonde diagrams.
January 11th, 2021
We have begun deploying some of the new JavaScript diagrams on our site which are replacing some of our Adobe Flash diagrams. So far only model wind and pressure diagrams have been replaced. Model error diagrams will be next, followed by AXBT water depth diagrams in the recon system. After that, we'll begin work on a replacement for the Adobe Flash dropsonde diagrams.
January 4th, 2021
We are currently working on updating Adobe Flash charting to JavaScript. We have a JavaScript chart that will work for wind, pressure, position error and intensity error data in the model system. The chart will also work for AXBT water depth data in the recon system. While we intend to have the charting replaced within the next week for those charting types, we have not yet worked on a dropsonde diagram for the recon system. We don't know when we will have a JavaScript alternative for dropsondes. When we do have one, it is likely to not have the features that our Adobe Flash diagram had, at least at first.