The current position and intensity of any storm on this page does not come from the latest advisory from the
National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the Atlantic and East Pacific basins or the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) for the Central Pacific basin. For this important data you must refer to the agency responsible for issuing forecasts in the particular basin you are looking at. The current position and intensity on this page is provided to show what data the early cycle models initialized with.
An invest area, noted with a number from 90 to 99, represents an area that is being watched for possible development. Refer to the tropical outlooks at the NHC and the CPHC for guidance on the possibility of development from these areas and look for the latest official advisory data if the storm is a tropical depression or higher.
The best track data, model data and center fix data comes from the
Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF). Our site downloads the latest files from
here and processes the data to be displayed visually. That system and the processing system our site uses may contain errors at times. Please consult the agency responsible for issuing forecasts in your basin, as this information, in addition to possibly containing errors from time to time, is only updated every 6 hours by the NHC. Updates made through regular and special forecast advisories may not be reflected here for three hours or more since ATCF data is usually offset from NHC advisory data by 3 hours. Normal ATCF update times are 0Z, 6Z, 12Z, and 18Z. Since the positions are valid at the time noted, it may take an hour for them to be posted to the ATCF system and then be downloaded by our site.
Under most normal circumstances, best track data and NHC model data come in starting around 0:30Z, 6:30Z, 12:30Z, and 18:30Z on our site. (And it may be a half hour after that for late posted data.)
Sometimes 6Z best track data may not be available for weaker storms. Normal NHC advisory update times are 3Z, 9Z, 15Z, and 21Z, with special advisories possible at any time, and these do not appear here.
This system also contains, when available, global model data downloaded directly from the
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. (ECMWF) The publicly accessible (WMO Essential) tropical cyclone trajectory data is processed by our site and integrated into the data on our site using the model identifiers ECMO, ECME and EE
XX, where
XX represents the ensemble member number. The ECMWF data available through the Global Telecommunications System (GTS) is not included for a particular run on our site if similar ECMWF data for that run exists in the main model file that our site processes from NOAA. This data is not available for invests.
The models available on this site are for educational purposes only. Meteorologists use these models along with many other tools in order to produce their forecasts. You can't simply look at these models alone and determine where a storm will go. Certain models are more applicable than others, but which ones are more applicable can only be determined by those who know how to use this data. One model is never always right. It is up to weather professionals to look at these models and see which ones are more applicable at the moment and use that knowledge along with the many other resources they have to come up with the best possible forecast. These models are provided for those who are interested in learning more about the tools that weather professionals use. They are not provided for any other reason.
For all official hurricane information, refer to the agency responsible for issuing forecasts in your basin.
DO NOT RELY ON ANY UNOFFICIAL SOURCES IN LIFE OR DEATH DECISIONS.
By using these models, you agree that this site is in no way responsible for the decisions you make based on these models. If you do not agree to this, you cannot use the models on our site.
