Monday, December 29th, 2014 12:21 GMT

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Average Model Error Table for the NHC Models for Tropical Depression Debby - 2012

A non-homogeneous comparison of early and late cycle models
Currently Selected Error Date: June 27, 2012 12:00 Z (Final Run)
Highest Development this storm ever achieved: Tropical Storm Debby (04L) - 55 knots
Jun. 23, 2012 - Jun. 27, 2012
Model Error in a:
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About This Product


Only models that were released in the NHC's "aid_public" directory are included here. This means that some models, including ones frequently used, are not included in this error calculation. Please also keep in mind that every storm is different. One model is not always best. Before using this product, consult our product description for methodology. It is extremely important that you know what each hurricane model is for before using this model error feature. Some models do not accurately forecast intensity and in this product these models are alongside ones that do attempt to accurately forecast intensity which can lead to very false conclusions. For example, GFS ensemble members should not be directly compared to models like the GFDL and HWRF when it comes to intensity. The ability to hide the intensity error if the 0 hr is greater than a certain intensity is only available on the model error table and not in the graphical chart. (You can manually hide the models you do not want to view on the chart.) Hover your mouse over a model name for its full model name, if available.

Important Historical Data Notice


The data for this storm was added after the storm was active. When we add historical data to our site it is generated differently than if it had been created in real time when the storm was active. Late cycle model error data for the zero hour interval that was created by our site after the storm was active will always appear six hours sooner than it would have if data for the storm was generated by our site in real time. All other model error data will appear as you would expect. Please view our product description for an explanation and indepth discussion.

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Average Position Error

(in nautical miles)



Model Name 0hr
24hr
48hr
72hr
96hr
AC00 13.0 67.1 127.1 106.7 204.8
AEMI 0 75.9 113.6 162.5 227.7
AEMN 14.1 65.5 124.2 129.9 235.3
AP01 17.6 67.7 121.8 154.4 135.0
AP02 15.0 95.8 145.0 188.3 224.8
AP03 14.8 78.3 156.2 232.6 381.9
AP04 16.5 74.6 158.7 173.6 315.0
AP05 16.7 79.9 171.5 156.4 59.4
AP06 14.8 102.4 239.6 402.0 483.2
AP07 14.4 106.3 174.8 230.2 628.3
AP08 12.5 52.6 150.4 234.6 530.4
AP09 19.4 92.3 189.5 236.6 304.1
AP10 16.7 69.7 149.4 175.2 91.9
AP11 19.1 88.0 174.6 262.5 286.9
AP12 17.6 72.7 120.0 114.9 189.2
AP13 18.2 101.7 155.9 193.5 364.3
AP14 15.5 69.6 162.9 239.1 544.6
AP15 19.0 84.1 143.8 181.4 336.4
AP16 17.4 63.2 150.7 162.8 412.1
AP17 15.2 75.0 166.8 221.6 266.8
Model Name 0hr
24hr
48hr
72hr
96hr
AP18 19.6 71.2 145.5 199.0 20.8
AP19 16.8 71.4 198.1 353.9 81.8
AP20 16.7 86.2 197.8 206.3 115.8
AVNI 0 65.3 102.3 79.5 75.4
AVNO 12.0 59.5 122.6 148.3 78.8
BAMD - 79.2 204.1 315.2 611.6
BAMM - 102.4 221.9 381.6 644.4
BAMS - 128.2 276.9 438.2 769.3
BCD5 9.9 62.3 162.2 254.1 331.8
BCS5 9.9 62.3 162.2 254.1 331.8
CEMN 28.6 70.6 146.4 284.8 454.3
CLIP - 85.6 171.3 254.0 -
CLP5 - 85.8 185.4 274.2 364.9
CMC 24.1 50.3 103.2 166.3 441.0
CMC2 0 57.1 117.1 233.3 459.8
CMCI 2.9 54.6 111.6 217.6 444.3
COTC 15.9 108.0 100.1 312.1 -
COTI 0 - - - -
DRCL 0 77.4 193.7 452.0 -
DSHP 0 90.1 215.9 422.3 501.6
Model Name 0hr
24hr
48hr
72hr
96hr
EGR2 0 45.4 172.8 433.5 -
EGRI 0 50.0 154.8 393.3 -
EGRR 23.3 33.9 93.4 243.5 -
FSSE 0 65.2 127.8 325.6 -
GF52 0 - - - -
GFD5 18.8 - - - -
GFDE 13.1 40.4 69.8 186.8 -
GFDI 0 100.6 157.6 238.2 355.2
GFDL 7.4 105.1 147.1 231.5 -
GFDM 10.6 16.9 37.1 - -
GFDT 11.0 111.0 153.0 240.6 -
GFE2 0 47.0 122.7 104.9 130.0
GFEI 0 28.7 - - -
GFTI 0 102.0 159.6 265.8 350.4
GHMI 0 100.6 157.6 238.2 355.2
GP01 9.7 36.3 101.7 213.3 -
GPMN 4.3 78.6 149.6 153.2 -
GTIM 15.7 - - - -
HWE2 0 101.1 237.4 550.7 697.5
HWEI 0 64.2 172.7 - -
Model Name 0hr
24hr
48hr
72hr
96hr
HWFE 18.4 63.7 186.4 450.7 -
HWFI 0 96.8 268.0 617.4 904.3
HWRF 5.2 88.1 224.7 583.3 945.7
LBAR 0 63.5 106.7 187.6 297.5
LGEM 0 90.1 215.9 422.3 501.6
MRCL 0 77.4 193.7 452.0 -
MRFO 15.8 43.3 83.5 58.9 -
MYOC 0 36.9 145.0 235.1 418.3
NAM 17.9 80.8 272.7 592.7 -
NAMI 0 119.6 291.7 714.1 -
NGX 22.7 104.4 254.9 552.1 1004.3
NGX2 0 134.3 338.5 699.3 1024.8
NGXI 2.9 121.8 307.4 661.0 962.7
OCD5 0 85.8 185.4 274.2 364.9
OCS5 0 85.8 185.4 274.2 364.9
OFCI 0 87.9 223.8 513.5 -
OFCL 3.0 77.0 193.0 452.0 -
OFCO 0 113.9 230.7 476.8 -
OFCP 0 83.4 177.2 282.9 547.8
OFP2 0 127.8 228.9 378.1 -
Model Name 0hr
24hr
48hr
72hr
96hr
OFPI 0 99.7 178.6 288.1 501.6
SHIP 0 90.1 215.9 422.3 501.6
SPC3 19.1 107.4 234.3 479.4 -
TCLP 0 80.7 173.8 314.3 -
TCOA 0 70.5 144.4 303.6 -
TV15 0 73.4 160.0 311.3 507.6
TVCA 0 73.4 160.0 311.3 507.6
TVCC 0 72.1 161.2 315.8 518.9
TVCE 0 73.4 160.0 311.3 507.6
TVCN 0 73.4 160.0 311.3 507.6
UKM 23.3 33.9 93.4 243.5 -
UKM2 3.3 55.3 209.5 514.3 962.3
UKMI 0 44.2 154.8 393.3 -
UKX 23.4 48.2 129.6 336.3 -
UKX2 0 73.0 216.2 500.5 -
UKXI 2.9 70.8 202.7 471.3 -
UWN8 36.2 83.6 210.6 372.1 -
UWNI 0 - - - -
XTRP 0 82.8 201.5 360.3 789.4
ZGFS 12.0 - - - -
Model Name 0hr
24hr
48hr
72hr
96hr

Average 8.3 77.3 171.3 312.8 434.1


Average Intensity Error

(in knots)



Model Name 0hr
24hr
48hr
72hr
96hr
AP07 9.8 10.5 5.0 12.0 7.0
AP08 9.9 8.7 5.8 9.0 4.0
AP11 9.8 9.2 5.0 7.4 2.0
AVNI 0 7.6 8.7 12.8 12.0
AVNO 8.1 6.3 5.4 7.8 6.0
BCD5 1.5 9.1 4.2 5.2 3.0
BCS5 1.5 10.3 13.6 18.4 12.0
COTC 4.7 13.0 6.2 27.3 -
COTI 0 - - - -
DRCL 0 6.7 20.0 31.2 -
DSHP 0 8.8 14.1 21.0 23.0
FSSE 0 6.5 11.1 17.5 -
GF52 0 - - - -
GFD5 1.0 - - - -
GFDE 4.1 4.7 8.0 18.5 -
GFDI 0 8.6 10.8 14.4 2.0
GFDL 7.0 8.4 9.8 11.8 -
GFDM 4.0 2.0 13.0 - -
GFDT 8.3 8.5 9.8 11.2 -
GFE2 0 6.0 7.5 7.5 16.0
Model Name 0hr
24hr
48hr
72hr
96hr
GFEI 0 4.0 - - -
GFTI 0 6.9 10.1 6.4 0
GHMI 0 7.2 10.1 5.0 0
GP01 7.5 5.6 4.2 17.0 -
GPMN 7.6 4.7 6.0 10.7 -
GTIM 2.0 - - - -
HWE2 0 7.5 8.5 15.0 7.0
HWEI 0 0.5 6.0 - -
HWFE 7.1 5.8 3.5 11.5 -
HWFI 0 6.8 11.1 21.6 2.0
HWRF 1.3 6.6 7.6 21.6 1.0
ICON 0 7.5 10.7 15.6 9.0
IV15 0 7.5 10.7 15.6 9.0
IVCN 0 7.5 10.7 15.6 9.0
IVCR 0 7.5 10.7 15.6 9.0
LBAR 0 - - - -
LGEM 0 9.2 15.4 20.6 12.0
MRCL 0 6.7 20.0 31.2 -
MRFO 9.8 7.3 5.0 2.0 -
MYOC 0 17.0 18.0 13.0 0
Model Name 0hr
24hr
48hr
72hr
96hr
NAMI 0 7.1 9.6 12.8 -
NGX2 0 8.1 8.2 12.0 12.0
NGXI 0 6.1 7.4 7.3 5.0
OCD5 0 6.8 8.1 8.2 3.0
OCS5 0 9.8 13.8 17.6 12.0
OFCI 0 7.8 22.1 33.7 -
OFCL 0.3 6.2 20.0 31.2 -
OFCO 0 5.0 20.0 35.0 -
OFCP 0 15.0 5.0 10.0 20.0
OFP2 0 1.0 18.0 31.0 -
OFPI 0 9.0 9.0 15.5 19.0
SHF5 0 9.8 13.8 17.6 12.0
SHFR - 10.2 17.1 20.6 -
SHIP 0 8.8 14.1 21.0 23.0
SPC3 0 10.9 20.9 31.7 -
TCLP 0 10.2 9.9 7.8 -
UKM 9.1 7.7 3.2 12.0 -
UKM2 0 9.8 14.2 15.5 2.0
UKMI 0 5.2 14.0 28.0 -
UKX2 0 10.0 11.8 18.3 -
Model Name 0hr
24hr
48hr
72hr
96hr
UKXI 0 7.0 10.6 13.7 -
UWN8 2.8 5.0 7.7 28.7 -
UWNI 0 - - - -
ZGFS 8.1 - - - -

Average 2.0 7.7 10.8 16.7 8.4

Models with a zero hour intensity greater than 10 knots are not displayed above and are not calculated for the average row. This is not based on any official method and you can adjust this wind speed or even show all models in the options section. See our product description for more on why we do this.