Thursday, July 24, 2014 19:20 GMT

Additional Model Data

This page links to model data that meteorologists use to make forecasts.

For official information on current tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, visit the National Hurricane Center.

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National Hurricane Center Model Data (Displayed by Tropical Atlantic)
NOAA - National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Global Forecast System (GFS)
European Model (ECMWF/IFS)
Canadian Model (CMC/GEM)
Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) - Replacement for NOGAPS
NOAA - National Digital Forecast Database Graphical Forecasts
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP)
More Model Data
About Models

National Hurricane Center Model Data (Displayed by Tropical Atlantic)

Tropical Cyclone Model & Best Track Archive at Tropical Atlantic
Our model site displays National Hurricane Center (NHC) model data in Google Maps and Google Earth for active storms and areas of investigation. (Areas of investigation are designated as invests with numbers from 90 to 99.) You can also view model wind and pressure data, when available, in Adobe Flash diagrams. All best track and model data is archived so you can view historic data as well. Other features of our model system include NHC model error, a center fix system containing raw center fixes by satellite and other sources and model data for the East and Central Pacific basins. For active Atlantic storms, links to each storm's data will appear at the top of most of the pages on our site.

If you have the free program Google Earth, you can access all model data in the Atlantic Basin by saving the Google Earth file below:
This file will allow you to view the latest model data when it is available for active storms and areas of investigation. NHC best track, model and fix data come from the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) system. Raw ATCF data is downloaded here from the NHC's FTP server and is processed by our site to be displayed visually when new data is available.

For a nice background to display Google Earth data on, click here for a NASA Blue Marble layer for Google Earth.

For information about other basins, visit Tropical Globe.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)

Model Analysis and Guidance

This site has excellent Global Forecast System (GFS) model imagery. Prior to the hardware failure they also had excellent GFDL and HWRF imagery. Check back on the site to see when it is upgraded. Other model data includes: North America Mesoscale Model (NAM) and NAM-HIRES, Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS), Short Range Ensemble Forecast Model (SREF), Rapid Refresh Model (RAP), High Resolution Window (HRW) and Wave Watch III Model (WW3). Also includes Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA), Upper Air Plots and Skew-T Plots.

NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis Tracking Page

This site displays models' projected path of low pressure areas all in one image. Once on the site, click the latest time in the left frame. From that you'll see a page full of different regions and models. If you are looking for a storm that doesn't happen to be near North America, such as in the Caribbean or across the Atlantic basin, scroll down the page and there is a table for the Atlantic basin. There are a variety of models to choose from, such as a multiple model, GFS, NCEP Ensemble, NAM, SREF Ensemble, UKMET (UK Meteorological), FNMOC (Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center) Ensemble, CMC (Canadian Meteorological Centre) and CMC Ensemble.The images show the path of a low with a line and also display the forecast pressure, which is quite helpful. You can view the text files if you cannot read the pressure on the images.

Visit the Environmental Modeling Center at NCEP for more information and modeling. You can also visit the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) for other information on temperature and precipitation outlooks along with U.S. Drought Information. Two important areas of the CPC include the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO, also known as El Niño / La Niña - About on Wikipedia) and the Madden - Julian Oscillation. (MJO - About on Wikipedia) For more climate information, visit NOAA's Climate.gov, where you will also find a blog about ENSO.

Global Forecast System (GFS) - Global Model - Every 6 Hours

Global Forecast System - Home page at NCEP

Model data for the GFS is available on the Model Analysis and Guidance page from NCEP as previously described on this page. About the GFS.

Weather Underground WunderMap - GFS Model Data

Scroll down in the right column of the page to "Model Data". You can select from a large variety of map types, select which model run you want to view (especially if the default run that loads is incomplete), which forecast hour you want to view (which also allows you to animate the entire run) and also select an opacity if you want to be able to view other features on the map. You can also zoom in and out and also pan the map. The WunderMap also has other model data available such as the ECMWF, NAM and Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) along with a massive amount of other weather features. Storm specific HWRF model data may also be available.

European Model (ECMWF/IFS) - Global Model - Every 12 Hours

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

North American Region: Wind 850 and mslp or Geopotential 500 hPa and Temperature at 850 hPa
African Region (including eastern Atlantic): Wind 850 and mslp or Geopotential 500 hPa and Temperature at 850 hPa

You can learn more about the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS) here.

Weather Underground WunderMap - ECMWF Model Data

See the description under the GFS section for how to use the WunderMap interface.

Canadian Model (CMC/GEM) - Global Model - Every 12 Hours

The Canadian Meteorological Center's (CMC) Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) Model.

Environment Canada

Global Model
Regional Model
Global Ensemble Forecasts
Operational Analysis Charts - Current Surface / Upper Air Analysis

Atmospheric Sciences Group at the University of Quebec at Montreal
You can view model data further out in time than the 144 hours (6 days) on the the CMC site.

North America
Northern Hemisphere

Surface Analyses & Observations

Caribbean
North America

You can select a much larger size image and select previous surface snalyses & observations.

Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) - Global Model - Every 12 Hours

This model replaced the NOGAPS in early 2013.

Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) - U.S. Navy

NAVGEM
GFS
Note: You can safely ignore the security warning if one pops up.

NRL / FNMOC NAVGEM Grid Displays - U.S. Navy

National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) Graphical Forecasts

http://preview.weather.gov/graphical/ (Proposed replacement of this page)

The National Hurricane Center has now incorporated their NHC/TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecasts into the proposed replacement of the National Weather Service Graphical Forecast Page. Select "Oceanic" as the geographic region and next to it select the forecast element you want to view. You can use the slider to view a different time period. You can learn more about how to use the interface here. You can view more information here on the NHC's site about the addition.

Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP)

Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP)
"HFIP provides the basis for NOAA and other agencies to coordinate hurricane research needed to significantly improve guidance for hurricane track, intensity, and storm surge forecasts. It also engages and aligns the inter-agency and larger scientific community efforts towards addressing the challenges posed to improve hurricane forecasts. The goals of the HFIP are to improve the accuracy and reliability of hurricane forecasts; to extend lead time for hurricane forecasts with increased certainty; and to increase confidence in hurricane forecasts."
NOAA HFIP Related Websites - This site links to lots of great resources, some of which appear below and in other places on this page.

More Model Data

Cyclone Phase Analysis & Forecasts at FSU
ECMWF (delayed), GFS, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET, CMC, NAVGEM

This site goes into more depth about the forecast track of lows. It shows you the line where the center is expected to travel along with some pressure and other data expected at the core. The phase diagrams are a very valuable resource to look at to learn more about the core of potential and current storms.

Tropical Cyclone Genesis Model Output at FSU
ECMWF, GFS, GFDL, HWRF, CMC, NAVGEM

This site has great graphics that you can view, especially for the GFDL and HWRF. In addition to this part of the site and the cyclone phase diagrams, you can also visit some more experimental areas of the site. (Tropical Cyclone Genesis Probabilities | Tropical Cyclone Track Probability for landfalls based on historical data)

Operational Model Displays at PSU
GFS, CMC, NAVGEM, HWRF, GFDL

This site is similar the FSU site. On this site the long range GFS is available.

Weather Underground (Model Imagery on WunderMap | Tropical Weather in the Atlantic)

The WunderMap contains excellent model imagery from the ECMWF and GFS that you can zoom in on and animate. (The HWRF is also available for active cyclones.) The WunderMap also has some of the most impressive weather overlays on the web in Google Maps. To access model imagery in the WunderMap scroll down in the right column of the page to "Model Data".

On the tropical weather page for the Atlantic you will also see additional model imagery (Click "Computer Models") for active storms with a great deal of other information on tropical cyclones. This part of the site also includes some of the SHIPS intensity model data on the model imagery.

Invest Tracking of Waves / Pouches at Naval Postgraduate School

This site tracks waves before and after they may or may not reach invest status. It also contains model data for the waves.

Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project (TCGP) at National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

This site has select NHC model data plotted on images as well as model intensity data charted. It also has an archive of imagery, the latest SHIPS text output for a storm and links to other content. This site has the model system that the Colorado State model site had.

e-WALL - The Electronic Map Wall at Pennsylvania State University (PSU)

Lots of models, including the GFS, UKMET, CMC and other data, including satellite imagery.
Click here for Tropical Atlantic e-WALL. (Notice in the left column the satellite views, including floaters.)

Text model data from the NHC

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/
This folder contains a very detailed SHIPS output. The latest files, like the text model data folder, are at the bottom.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/aid_public/
The compressed files in this folder contain the raw text data that Tropical Atlantic processes to present on our site. The easiest way to view this data is the processed output that we or another site generates.

Various Other Sites

NOAA's Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) - GFS, NAM
Ohio State University - GFS, ECMWF, NAM
Unisys - GFS, ECMWF, NAM
Numerical Model Prediction at Tropical Tidbits - GFS, CMC (GEM), NAVGEM, NAM, CFS
South Florida Water Management District Model Data (SFWMD) - (Some NHC model data. Ignore any storm that is not from 1 to 49, depression or higher, or 90 to 99, invest areas.)

About Models

NHC Forecast Model Information

This page from the National Hurricane Center explains some of the different models used in forecasting hurricanes.

Hurricane Forecast Computer Models from Weather Underground

This page provides a brief overview of the global forecast models.

An Overview of NHC Prediction Models from the National Weather Service Southern Region

This page contains quite a bit of data regarding models, though it is rather dated.

Model FAQ from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (HRD)

This page contains information that is mostly contained on the pages above. It is an answer to a question in the HRD's excellent Tropical Cyclone FAQ